To them, it’s not nuclear war, but just a series of unfortunate nuclear accidents.A molten salt reactor ( MSR) is a class of nuclear fission reactor in which the primary nuclear reactor coolant and/or the fuel is a molten salt mixture. On the other hand, heedless purveyors of “gray zone” warfare may be underestimating the risk themselves, all too eager to determine just how degraded nuclear infrastructure might serve as a “less risky” surrogate for nuclear conflict. The world has never experienced war that threatens active nuclear power infrastructure, and world leaders may be underestimating the peril conventional warfare presents to these powerful and perilous assets. The fallout could even force the three reactors at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant-barely 160 miles downwind-to shut down, further weakening Ukraine’s electricity supply and its defenses. Tactically, radioactive plumes would make nearly every civilian nearby flee, degrading Ukrainian defensive efforts. The fallout will contaminate Ukraine’s key waterway, Europe’s breadbasket, and potentially-depending on the contamination types and weather patterns-compromising drinking water supplies across Europe. Of course, nature is a fickle partner, and, if Putin’s invaders spark an uncontrollable meltdown, the winter winds will eventually change, pushing radiation over the Donbass region and into Russia. If the reactors are damaged in late December or early January, the prevailing winds are from Siberia, and weather patterns can be expected to push dangerous levels of caesium-137 and other contaminants directly to the west. One dangerous contaminant, caesium-137, spread thousands of miles, though most “fell” out of the atmosphere within 200 miles of the stricken plant, creating large “no-go” zones in areas of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. He certainly must recall that the accident released a stew of dangerous radioactive contaminants into the air, spreading contamination-and fear-across Europe. When Chernobyl occurred, Putin was enjoying a KGB posting in East Germany. Nuclear disasters are rarely localized events. What Happens At Zaporizhzhia Won’t Stay There The very real prospect of an extended and unmitigated incident at a six-reactor powerplant in a war zone is worth urgent and immediate consultations throughout Europe and NATO. The world has never dealt with an unmanaged meltdown at a large nuclear power plant. The heroic measures that kept the Chernobyl nuclear accident and Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster from becoming far more damaging events just will not happen in a war zone.Īgain, the risks are very high. It seems unlikely that Russia has mobilized trained reactor operators and prepared reactor crisis-management teams to take over any “liberated” power plants. Plant security forces will disappear, operators will flee, and, if an accident occurs, mitigating measures will be impossible. Support infrastructure needed for safe reactor management will collapse during conflict. If the reactors suffer any operational anomalies, crisis management is not going to happen. Dangerous spent fuel rods are sitting in vulnerable cooling ponds, while older fuel sits in the site’s 167 dry spent fuel assemblies. And, as an operating power plant, the reactors are not the only threat. While the reactor structures themselves are strong, warfare at the plant could kill key personnel and destroy command-and-control structures, monitoring sensors or critical reactor-cooling infrastructure. Though unlikely, direct bombardment could cause serious damage to reactor containment structures. Outside of direct battle damage, cyber and other Russian-sourced “grey zone” mischief could make the plant unmanageable even before the battle arrives at the reactor gates. Ukraine’s desperate need for energy only compounds the opportunities for an accident. Given the importance of the electricity, plant managers will be reluctant to shut it down, securing the reactors only at the very last possible second. Aside from the geographical hazards, the power plant provides about a quarter of Ukraine’s total electrical power. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located only 120 miles from the current “front line” in the Donbass region and is on the hard-to-defend east bank of the Dnieper River. If war comes, the fight will be close by. The site has little protection, and the six VVER-1000 pressurized water reactors could easily be embroiled in any Russian invasion. It is the second-largest nuclear power plant in Europe (essentially tied with a French reactor complex near Calais), and one of the 10 largest nuclear power plants in the world. Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is a particular risk.
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